An important capability needed in innovation organizations is the ability to predict what is not known. The tool to do this is the “Dot Collector” developed by Ray Dalio. The “Dot Collector Software Application” figure shows a screenshot of the tool. During all meetings, all participants constantly evaluate whoever is speaking on the basis of (1) if what it they are saying is important and (2) is it believable. His real time information is fed into a master database that can later be queried at a future time when the business results of the topic being discussed are actually known. Correlations can then be drawn between who was believable in a particular subject area and therefore should be believed in the future when similar items come before the organization.
The “Organizational Map of Believability on a Particular Subject” figure shows what the believability ratings are for each person in a particular subject area. This can be utilized by an organization in a powerful way. Rather than weighting each person’s opinion with a similar weight, or based upon a hierarchical position in an organization, the person’s opinion can be weighted according to their believability score obtained by correlating past performance in the subject area along with who was doing the ratings. Making decisions based on summing individuals’ opinions weighted by their believability score outperforms other forms of decision-making when a group is trying to forecast an unknown future. This capability is critical for Innovation Organizations in particular.
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